Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:43:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dcf…eb1d weather 252 markets active 1h ago coverage 553d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate43%107W / 144L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 37% $0
politics 21% −$2
other 18% −$6
crypto 15% +$1
world 3% −$5
sports 3% −$13
culture 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.0% -9.6% 22% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 71 -0.0% -9.5% 31% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 197 -3.1% -12.3% 34% 0% -9.9%
all 251 -4.4% -13.5% 43% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 1% -10.0%
10% -21.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -29.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.3% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

553d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses107 / 144
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage553d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? Jun 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 27? Jun 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 27? Jun 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? Jun 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 27? Jun 26 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 26? Jun 26 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 35°C or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $28 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 26? Jun 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 41°C or higher on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 82°F or higher on Jun Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25? Jun 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 45°C on June 24? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 24? Jun 24 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Derek Tran advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 10 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 4? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 3? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 3? Jun 03 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 3? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or higher on June Jun 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will Yang Jeong-mu win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Electio Jun 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Phil Foden be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squad Jun 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 1? Jun 01 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 21, 2026? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Natalie Rivera be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Jersey Jun 01 $8 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 40°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will the People’s Bank of China increase rates in May? May 31 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 31? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $8 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $11 5h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 42°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $28 6h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 34°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $7 7h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $19 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $28 9h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $20 9h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $14 13h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $5 13h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $20 15h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $3 15h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 89°F or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $27 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $8 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.41 · official $11.41 (match) · 588 history records