Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dcf…392e crypto 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$494 (-9%) realized −$499 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%54W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$458
7 days−$458
14 days−$458
30 days−$458
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$956
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -11.0% -19.4% 58% 47% -39.3%
≤30d 19 -11.0% -19.4% 58% 47% -39.3%
≤90d 20 -15.4% -23.5% 55% 45% -39.4%
all 87 -9.4% -18.1% 62% 48% -26.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 48% -26.5%
10% -25.9% 38% -33.5%
15% -33.1% 24% -39.9%
20% -39.6% 16% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$54 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$499
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses54 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)87 / 88
History coverage120d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Down 62¢ 74¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$14 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $31 −$15 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $30 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$21 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $71 −$11 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $64 +$23 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $408 −$354 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $308 +$68 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 03 $400 −$394 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Mar 03 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Mar 03 $400 −$98 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Mar 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 03 $132 −$121 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 03 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 03 $20 −$10 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 03 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 03 $20 −$17 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Mar 03 $150 +$135 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 03 $130 +$16 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 03 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 03 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 03 $90 +$19 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 03 $20 +$19 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 03 $60 +$6 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 03 $100 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 03 $30 +$56 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Mar 03 $300 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 03 $70 −$69 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 03 $20 +$26 +132%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $12 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $15 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.64 · official $32.06 · 247 history records