Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:30:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dcb…ec18 crypto 371 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate4%15W / 356L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$35
other 21% −$8
world 13% −$4
politics 10% −$4
weather 8% −$4
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 118 -0.5% -10.0% 2% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 352 -0.4% -9.9% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 371 -0.8% -10.3% 4% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses15 / 356
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)371 / 371
History coverage101d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 371 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? Jun 20 $44 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $46 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 June 8-14? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $46 $0 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 9? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $46 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in June? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 06 $45 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $48 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $44 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? SELL No 100¢ $43 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $43 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 21h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 21h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $42 21h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $45 21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $45 21h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 21h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 847 history records