Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5D 0x5dcb…2cac other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$1
world 23% +$1
politics 18% $0
sports 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 5 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 8 +1.6% -8.0% 38% 0% -8.7%
all 36 +0.3% -9.3% 47% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage302d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $37 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $37 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $39 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $23 +$1 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $26 −$1 -3%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $16 −$2 -11%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $6 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $11 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 12 $1 $0 +12%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 11 $16 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 +0%
James Comey arrested by October 31? Oct 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $15 $0 +3%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 02 $16 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $29 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Sep 17 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 28 $34 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Aug 28 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $16 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $21 3h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $37 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $31 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $6 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $18 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $17 32h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 34h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $23 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $6 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $17 2d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $16 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $9 31d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 31d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $7 31d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $7 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $14 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 46¢ $13 32d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 184d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $10 191d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $13 193d
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 95¢ $16 255d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 23¢ $4 256d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $11 256d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 256d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $11 256d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 256d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $15 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 189 history records