Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dc9…a71e other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-11%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$28
crypto 32% +$4
sports 3% +$5
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 18 -3.5% -12.7% 39% 39% -19.4%
≤90d 57 -26.0% -33.0% 30% 30% -35.3%
all 71 +3.3% -6.5% 32% 32% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 32% -22.0%
10% -15.5% 32% -29.5%
15% -23.6% 32% -36.3%
20% -31.1% 31% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)71 / 75
History coverage116d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 02 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 30 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 29 $1 +$5 +490%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-09? May 06 $4 $0 -9%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? May 05 $3 −$3 -99%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-03? May 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-05-03? Apr 30 $7 −$7 -99%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-04-25? Apr 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 23 $4 +$16 +388%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-11? Apr 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-04-12? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-12? Apr 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-04-11? Apr 08 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-04-02? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +55%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-04-02? Apr 08 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 08 $2 +$2 +82%
Will SC Internacional vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? Apr 02 $3 +$6 +216%
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-04-02? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-04-01? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 31 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 28 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Mar 28 $2 +$2 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 35d
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 35¢ $3 41d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 42d
Will SC Internacional win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 42d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 46d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.30 · official $20.30 (match) · 115 history records