Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dc8…1abc crypto 43 markets active 6d ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$92 (-51%) realized −$92 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%8W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$93
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$92
other 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-54.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -96.3% -96.7% 0% 0% -96.9%
≤30d 43 -49.5% -54.3% 19% 19% -57.5%
≤90d 43 -49.5% -54.3% 19% 19% -57.5%
all 43 -49.5% -54.3% 19% 19% -57.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.3% 19% -57.5%
10% -58.7% 19% -61.6%
15% -62.7% 19% -65.3%
20% -66.3% 19% -68.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -54% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses8 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (32 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 05 $4 −$3 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 05 $0 +$1 +300%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 05 $4 −$1 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$4 +156%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$6 +111%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$3 -51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 04 $8 +$5 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 04 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 04 $4 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 04 $4 +$8 +218%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 04 $7 −$7 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$4 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 04 $5 +$8 +154%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 04 $7 +$10 +131%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 03 $8 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 03 $8 −$7 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 9d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $2 11d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $0 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $3 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records