Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:20:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5D 0x5dc5…324f world 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+1%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$54per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% +$20
other 10% $0
politics 1% +$2
sports 1% −$8
crypto 0% −$5
weather 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +0.0% -9.5% 27% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 28 +2.2% -7.5% 39% 4% -8.3%
≤90d 32 +1.3% -8.4% 34% 3% -8.9%
all 52 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 8% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 8% -9.0%
10% -17.6% 6% -17.8%
15% -25.6% 6% -25.7%
20% -32.9% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage535d
Avg bet$54
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 83¢ 84¢ $61 $62 +$0 (+1%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $63 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $132 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $72 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $64 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $84 +$6 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $249 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $34 +$2 +7%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $92 +$2 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $170 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $60 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $65 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $75 +$4 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $143 +$10 +7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $7 $0 -5%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $6 −$1 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $55 +$1 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $29 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $6 +$4 +57%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $13 $0 -3%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $46 −$1 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $244 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $491 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 12 $18 −$4 -21%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 11 $247 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 22 $2 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 175–189 times June 20–27? Jun 28 $1 $0 +3%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 19 $1 $0 -22%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $6 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 475-499 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Mar 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 22? Mar 04 $2 +$5 +335%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Feb 25 $2 $0 +11%
Rider vs. Iona Feb 21 $2 +$4 +233%
Memphis vs. South Florida Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Xavier vs. Providence Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Nebraska Omaha vs. San Diego State Feb 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis be Trump's Defense Secretary? Jan 25 $15 +$1 +8%
Will Jose Oliva be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 22 $0 $0 -100%
Will Juventus win the Serie A? Jan 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $8 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $53 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 12h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 18h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $7 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $24 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $31 35h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $7 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $24 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $31 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $11 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $7 41h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 43h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $7 43h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $23 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $42 45h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $11 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $54 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $52 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $45 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $7 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $3 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $65 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $62 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.04 · official $62.01 (match) · 218 history records