Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5D 0x5dc4…97c8 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$78 (+5%) realized +$65 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 29L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$376
7 days+$236
14 days+$236
30 days+$236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% −$165
sports 20% +$325
crypto 8% −$81
world 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +15.4% +4.5% 31% 31% +12.4%
≤30d 16 +15.4% +4.5% 31% 31% +12.4%
≤90d 16 +15.4% +4.5% 31% 31% +12.4%
all 36 -35.2% -41.3% 19% 19% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.3% 19% -5.3%
10% -47.0% 19% -14.4%
15% -52.1% 19% -22.7%
20% -56.8% 17% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -85% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$28 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 29
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage145d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $125 $142 +$17 (+13%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 −$60 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $107 +$257 +240%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $107 +$369 +344%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $72 −$70 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $18 +$116 +642%
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win Feb 22 $9 +$9 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Feb 22 $5 −$5 -98%
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? Feb 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 21 $15 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 17 $10 +$18 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Feb 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Feb 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minute Jan 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 1 hour an Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in over 2 hours and 30 minutes? Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Alex Honnold not complete a free solo of Taipei 101 by January 31 Jan 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 15 minut Jan 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 2 hours and 2 hours Jan 24 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $71 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 7h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 18h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $128 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $89 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 28h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $72 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $477 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $56 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $41 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $364 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $56 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 3d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 99¢ $134 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 13¢ $18 6d
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win SELL Yes 100¢ $18 115d
Will United States win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Win BUY Yes 48¢ $9 115d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 115d
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.02 · official $212.71 · 54 history records