Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dc2…4837 other 1149 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 223d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,818 (-2%) realized −$7,799 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate75%855W / 280L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,727now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$83
14 days−$32
30 days+$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$3,161
other 14% −$3,620
weather 12% +$232
sports 2% +$150
world 1% +$125
tech 1% −$333
finance 1% −$10
politics 0% −$524
culture 0% +$55
economics 0% −$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +13.0% +2.2% 95% 29% -8.5%
≤30d 118 +2.8% -7.0% 89% 23% -9.1%
≤90d 484 -3.4% -12.6% 78% 29% -10.1%
all 1135 -3.4% -12.6% 75% 30% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 30% -11.4%
10% -21.0% 21% -19.8%
15% -28.6% 16% -27.6%
20% -35.6% 11% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$60 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$1,727
Realized−$7,799
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses855 / 280
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions14
Markets (closed)1135 / 1149
History coverage223d ⚠
Avg bet$310
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 1135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $566 $565 −$1 (-0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $294 $294 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $198 $198 −$0 (-0%)
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 57¢ 52¢ $188 $173 −$15 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $60 $59 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 89¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $44 $44 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 94¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-3%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 85¢ 84¢ $26 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$8 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $193 +$7 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $40 +$7 +18%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +46%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego Jun 12 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? Jun 12 $228 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 12 $13 $0 +3%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $11 +$19 +172%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $27 +$13 +48%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$9 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 12 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 11? Jun 12 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 11 $46 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 10? Jun 11 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 10? Jun 11 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $298 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 10 $845 −$3 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 10 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 9? Jun 10 $499 +$1 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $662 −$45 -7%
Will Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 1? Jun 09 $42 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? Jun 09 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 1? Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 1? Jun 09 $238 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 09 $298 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 1? Jun 09 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? Jun 09 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on May 31? Jun 01 $43 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $197 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on May 31? Jun 01 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 31? Jun 01 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 01 $71 −$71 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on May 31? Jun 01 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $299 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 31 $55 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $15 56m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $198 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $200 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $30 11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $20 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $18 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $132 22h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 97¢ $43 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $198 22h
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $220 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $199 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $200 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $200 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $200 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $117 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzego BUY 79¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 98¢ $197 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? BUY No 95¢ $29 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $300 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $300 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,727.43 · official $1,727.05 (match) · 3500 history records