Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5dbe…8334 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,136 (-53%) realized −$2,070 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$624
7 days−$624
14 days−$2,019
30 days−$2,019
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$1,539
world 16% −$514
finance 10% −$377
other 4% +$2
politics 3% +$10
sports 3% +$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-59.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -54.6% -58.9% 20% 20% -84.0%
≤30d 24 -58.0% -62.0% 21% 21% -71.5%
≤90d 27 -58.4% -62.4% 22% 19% -72.4%
all 37 -54.9% -59.2% 24% 19% -63.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.2% 19% -63.4%
10% -63.1% 19% -66.9%
15% -66.6% 19% -70.1%
20% -69.9% 16% -73.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$94 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$2,070
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage171d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? No 4¢ 2¢ $186 $120 −$66 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 27 $18 −$15 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 27 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $61 −$32 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET Jun 27 $27 +$22 +83%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 27 $414 −$377 -91%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 27 $214 −$214 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 22? Jun 17 $371 −$371 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$12 +76%
Over $5M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,900 on January 22? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 17 $526 −$392 -75%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $101 +$77 +76%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$45 +45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $984 −$677 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 20 $66 −$59 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $60 −$57 -95%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 26 $135 +$10 +8%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $134 −$122 -92%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 21? Jan 21 $143 −$114 -80%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,000 and $3,100 on January 21? Jan 21 $180 +$162 +90%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,800 and $2,900 on January 9? Jan 09 $66 −$63 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 08 $38 +$29 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 08 $28 −$17 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 4¢ $98 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 28? BUY No 4¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $16 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 2¢ $29 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 3¢ $61 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $49 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $38 27h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 5¢ $207 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $214 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 4¢ $208 10d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $178 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 11d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $290 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $44 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.29 · official $120.29 (match) · 99 history records