Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:04:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5D 0x5dba…4fe1 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$665 (+11%) realized +$480 · open +$185
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate52%48W / 44L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$234
7 days+$322
14 days+$322
30 days+$322
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$673
crypto 35% −$101
other 14% +$216
world 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 -30.6% -37.2% 44% 29% -3.7%
≤30d 70 -30.6% -37.2% 44% 29% -3.7%
≤90d 70 -30.6% -37.2% 44% 29% -3.7%
all 92 -14.4% -22.6% 52% 36% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 36% -0.9%
10% -30.0% 34% -10.4%
15% -36.7% 29% -19.0%
20% -42.9% 25% -27.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$24 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$480
Unrealized+$185
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses48 / 44
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)92 / 93
History coverage162d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 92 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 36¢ 100¢ $105 $290 +$185 (+176%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $203 +$51 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$97 -91%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $217 +$146 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$20 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$9 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $139 +$266 +192%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$42 +83%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $306 +$42 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $226 +$9 +4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $452 +$24 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $110 +$6 +5%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 15 $450 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $150 +$4 +3%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $401 +$34 +8%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $131 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $31 +$11 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$91 +72%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $126 +$11 +9%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$30 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $107 +$166 +155%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $174 −$174 -100%
Spread: Haiti (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 8¢ $5 41m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 45¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $363 11h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 59¢ $217 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $6 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 29h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 15¢ $51 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY No 11¢ $5 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY No 30¢ $41 31h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? BUY No 31¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 31h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 54¢ $51 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $405 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $1 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 45¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 33¢ $133 38h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $18 39h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 39h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY No 54¢ $10 40h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $348 40h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 87¢ $221 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $290.12 · official $290.12 (match) · 258 history records