Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:13:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dba…116a politics 130 markets active 0h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,156 (+1%) realized +$1,154 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate29%37W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$985per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$871now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$69
other 34% +$6
sports 12% +$1,240
economics 3% −$4
culture 2% −$4
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% −$31
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 48 +2.9% -6.9% 10% 2% -8.4%
all 129 +1.7% -8.0% 29% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 11% -8.7%
10% -16.8% 11% -17.5%
15% -24.8% 10% -25.4%
20% -32.2% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,466) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +12% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$6 · ×7.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$871
Realized+$1,154
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses37 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage149d
Avg bet$985
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $869 $871 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $236 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $281 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $253 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $237 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,798 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3,567 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,662 −$3 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $2,093 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,681 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,626 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,655 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,570 −$3 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,596 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $3,342 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,587 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $693 +$1 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,598 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 19 $1,094 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,242 −$2 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $9,781 −$11 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 01 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 01 $350 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 01 $625 +$1 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $7,366 −$7 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,538 −$3 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,650 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $4,750 −$5 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $2,537 −$3 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,840 $0 +0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 09 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 08 $1,648 −$2 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 07 $60 $0 +0%
Bruins vs. Blue Jackets Apr 07 $733 +$1,054 +144%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Olympiakós SFP end in a draw? Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22? Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $235 9m
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 1h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $281 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $281 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $252 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $253 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $400 7d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $401 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $237 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $237 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $205 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $205 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $869 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,795 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,798 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,409 13d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 14d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,492 14d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,494 14d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,659 15d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,662 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,661 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,663 16d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,678 19d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,681 19d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,624 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,626 20d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,652 21d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,655 21d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,568 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $870.86 · official $870.86 (match) · 420 history records