Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:00:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5db9…bc42 weather 136 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$248 (-3%) realized −$247 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate60%81W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$16
14 days+$3
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 39% +$132
other 23% −$193
weather 17% −$144
crypto 15% −$24
sports 4% +$9
world 1% −$20
politics 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -8.5% -17.2% 56% 25% -14.3%
≤30d 48 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 29% -20.4%
≤90d 97 -11.6% -20.0% 58% 23% -14.6%
all 134 -10.3% -18.8% 60% 19% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 19% -12.5%
10% -26.6% 9% -20.9%
15% -33.7% 5% -28.5%
20% -40.2% 5% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$12 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$247
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses81 / 53
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage139d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? No 94¢ 94¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? Jun 27 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? Jun 27 $34 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? Jun 27 $52 −$19 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $25 −$7 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? Jun 26 $6 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $25 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 +$4 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $22 +$5 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 24? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 24? Jun 23 $15 −$10 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 23? Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 21 $41 +$9 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 −$3 -20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 +6%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +79%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 21? Jun 19 $16 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 20? Jun 19 $10 $0 +2%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 +$5 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 +$13 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $9 −$6 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $25 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -78%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +71%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$9 -57%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -9%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 09 $8 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 $0 +2%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,400-$5,800 in June? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Gold (GC) settle at >$6,200 in June? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,800-$6,200 in June? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $5,000-$5,400 in June? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? Jun 08 $250 −$81 -32%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? May 22 $270 −$94 -35%
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June? May 22 $3 +$2 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 29? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 29? BUY No 94¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 57¢ $18 13h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 94¢ $30 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? SELL No 86¢ $13 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 28? BUY No 96¢ $14 15h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 95¢ $19 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 27? BUY No 97¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $15 18h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 31h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? SELL No 65¢ $16 31h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 28? BUY Yes 35¢ $6 35h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? SELL No 95¢ $28 39h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 83¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 83¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 27? BUY No 89¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 45¢ $14 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 26? BUY No 88¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? BUY Yes 39¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 25? BUY No 86¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 26? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.07 · official $21.07 (match) · 381 history records