Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:06:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5D 0x5db9…190e sports 1471 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate63%917W / 543L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$170est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days+$43
14 days−$164
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$74
other 0% +$5
world 0% −$8
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 158 -1.2% -10.6% 69% 56% -8.7%
≤30d 526 +1.6% -8.1% 67% 58% -9.4%
≤90d 1460 +0.7% -8.9% 63% 50% -10.0%
all 1460 +0.7% -8.9% 63% 50% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 50% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 37% -18.6%
15% -25.6% 27% -26.4%
20% -32.8% 18% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses917 / 543
Est. fees paid−$170
Open positions11
Markets (closed)1460 / 1471
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 1460 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Team Resilience 91¢ 100¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+10%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 49¢ 54¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? No 86¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 0¢ 80¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 25¢ 14¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-46%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 39¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 37¢ 36¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $20 +$8 +38%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 18 $22 +$4 +19%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $40 −$11 -28%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $5 $0 +6%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $80 −$27 -34%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $20 +$11 +52%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $2 +$1 +70%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $20 +$1 +6%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $30 +$11 +36%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $1 $0 +32%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $60 +$17 +28%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $120 −$61 -51%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $40 +$8 +21%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $19 +$6 +29%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $20 +$19 +93%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $20 +$2 +12%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 +$11 +109%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $20 +$16 +79%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $2 $0 +13%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $4 +$1 +40%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $30 +$2 +5%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$4 +14%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$3 +10%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $29 +$4 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $60 +$45 +75%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $80 +$19 +24%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +93%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$6 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $30 +$10 +32%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $5 0m
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 91¢ $29 1h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 37¢ $2 4h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 39¢ $2 4h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 38¢ $2 4h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Seattle Mariners 34¢ $12 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 62¢ $17 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 71¢ $20 6h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $20 6h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 92¢ $20 7h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $2 9h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 72¢ $20 9h
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY No 31¢ $5 11h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $17 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 36¢ $35 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 69¢ $19 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 54¢ $20 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $20 12h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 65¢ $20 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 65¢ $20 13h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo BUY No 58¢ $2 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 25¢ $5 14h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 95¢ $20 14h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 45¢ $2 14h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 94¢ $20 15h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $10 17h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 63¢ $2 18h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 73¢ $30 19h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 54¢ $2 20h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 75¢ $1 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.35 · official $72.16 (match) · 3500 history records