Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:09:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5db4…9120 crypto 640 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate83%528W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day45.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$22
14 days−$118
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -0.8% -10.2% 86% 1% -8.9%
≤30d 639 -0.2% -9.7% 83% 2% -8.9%
≤90d 639 -0.2% -9.7% 83% 2% -8.9%
all 639 -0.2% -9.7% 83% 2% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 2% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 0% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$12 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses528 / 111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)639 / 640
History coverage20d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day45.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 639 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Down 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $58 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$11 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $59 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $55 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $58 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $9 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $48 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $58 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $56 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $59 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $59 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $59 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $59 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.10 · official $56.70 · 1550 history records