Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5db2…fd5b crypto 124 markets active 6h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$84 (-2%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%35W / 89L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day48.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$200
14 days−$281
30 days−$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$274
other 6% +$2
finance 1% −$6
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -55.9% -60.1% 16% 14% -37.3%
≤30d 124 -30.0% -36.7% 28% 24% -16.0%
≤90d 124 -30.0% -36.7% 28% 24% -16.0%
all 124 -30.0% -36.7% 28% 24% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.7% 24% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -42.7% 19% -24.0%
15% -48.3% 15% -31.4%
20% -53.3% 13% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -59% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$14 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses35 / 89
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)124 / 124
History coverage8d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day48.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 124 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$1 -12%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $23 −$4 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$7 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$4 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $119 −$10 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9PM ET Jun 17 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $27 −$22 -81%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$9 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$9 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$16 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $29 +$7 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $35 −$10 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $38 +$9 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $22 −$13 -59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $1 6h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 472 history records