Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dae…439a politics 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,035 (-1%) realized −$1,035 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate26%36W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$854per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$590now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$17
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$57
other 34% −$18
sports 17% −$935
economics 3% −$2
world 2% −$36
crypto 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -10.2% -18.7% 8% 3% -11.3%
all 139 -0.1% -9.6% 26% 9% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 9% -10.3%
10% -18.2% 9% -18.9%
15% -26.1% 7% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 6% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,197) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$17 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$590
Realized−$1,035
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses36 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage140d
Avg bet$854
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $591 $590 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $204 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $844 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,886 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,840 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,622 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $862 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,684 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,152 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,745 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $786 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $398 +$1 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $621 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $326 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $573 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $779 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $889 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $2,586 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $791 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $791 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,394 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 01 $461 +$1 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $612 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,300 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $3,353 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,910 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $2,193 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $1,352 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,861 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $757 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,800 −$2 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $2,342 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $1,389 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,455 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $425 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $425 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $423 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $204 0m
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $204 1h
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $591 45h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $842 3d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $844 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $817 4d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $818 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $817 5d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $818 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $859 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $765 6d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $766 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $806 6d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $807 7d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $861 10d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $862 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $796 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $797 11d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $779 12d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $780 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $863 14d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $864 14d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $862 14d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $864 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $785 15d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $786 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $855 15d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $856 15d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $620 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $590.21 · official $590.21 (match) · 412 history records