Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:13:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dac…34c0 crypto 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$100 (+9%) realized +$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%24W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day93.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$130
sports 6% +$104
other 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 38% -11.2%
≤30d 48 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 38% -11.2%
≤90d 48 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 38% -11.2%
all 48 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 38% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 38% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 31% -19.7%
15% -24.6% 31% -27.5%
20% -32.0% 25% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses24 / 24
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)48 / 51
History coverage2d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day93.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-30? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 29¢ 22¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 30 $36 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 30 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 30 $56 −$30 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 30 $21 −$14 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 30 $61 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 30 $86 −$30 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 30 $26 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 30 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 29 $56 +$25 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 29 $51 +$29 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$4 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$11 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $45 +$25 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$3 +60%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $15 −$10 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $15 +$9 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$3 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 +$17 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 29 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$8 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 29 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $5 +$7 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
T20 Series Ireland vs India: Ireland vs India Jun 28 $9 +$83 +889%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.05 · official $15.05 (match) · 150 history records