Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dac…43c3 crypto 209 markets active 0h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$21 (-3%) realized −$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate61%127W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$21
other 10% −$6
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -18.9% -26.6% 56% 33% -17.2%
≤30d 39 -18.9% -26.6% 56% 33% -17.2%
≤90d 102 -10.5% -19.0% 62% 37% -15.5%
all 209 -4.8% -13.8% 61% 40% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 40% -13.7%
10% -22.1% 22% -21.9%
15% -29.6% 11% -29.5%
20% -36.5% 5% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses127 / 82
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)209 / 209
History coverage164d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 209 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$1 -19%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -52%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +8%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -51%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +23%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -59%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +13%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 -6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +35%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 25 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 25 $4 $0 +12%
BNB Up or Down - March 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 25 $14 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 25 $5 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 25 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 25 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 25 $1 $0 -43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $2 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 9m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $3 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 11m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $2 12m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 13m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 21m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $1 24m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $3 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 27m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $3 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 16¢ $0 28m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 29m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $1 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 48¢ $1 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 32m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 41m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 79¢ $4 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 43m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 697 history records