Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5dab…b7d8 other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$582 (-31%) realized −$589 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%9W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$324
7 days−$547
14 days−$316
30 days−$316
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$243
sports 12% −$41
crypto 3% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-37.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -34.1% -40.3% 9% 9% -50.2%
≤30d 73 -30.7% -37.3% 12% 12% -26.8%
≤90d 73 -30.7% -37.3% 12% 12% -26.8%
all 73 -30.7% -37.3% 12% 12% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.3% 12% -26.8%
10% -43.3% 12% -33.8%
15% -48.8% 11% -40.2%
20% -53.8% 11% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -49% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$17 · ×5.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$589
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses9 / 64
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 90
History coverage11d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $30 +$7 +23%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $15 +$131 +850%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$1 -31%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4 −$2 -56%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? Jun 28 $21 +$200 +972%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $140 −$138 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 3 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $15 +$121 +784%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $224 −$158 -70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $252 −$235 -93%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 21 $10 −$8 -74%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? SELL Yes 100¢ $146 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? SELL Yes 54¢ $220 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR BUY 12¢ $10 15h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 32¢ $20 17h
Spread: England (-3.5) AND Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY 9¢ $10 17h
Spread: England (-2.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY 23¢ $20 17h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 2 United States? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 3 United States? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 57¢ $41 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 44¢ $100 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 3 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 3 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.57 · official $36.73 (match) · 179 history records