Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5daa…d619 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$185 (+17%) realized −$213 · open +$398
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$463now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$427
other 21% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +6.6% -3.5% 46% 42% -3.7%
≤30d 26 +6.6% -3.5% 46% 42% -3.7%
≤90d 26 +6.6% -3.5% 46% 42% -3.7%
all 26 +6.6% -3.5% 46% 42% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 42% -3.7%
10% -12.8% 38% -12.9%
15% -21.2% 38% -21.4%
20% -28.9% 35% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +37% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$32 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$463
Realized−$213
Unrealized+$398
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage6d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 100¢ $30 $428 +$398 (+1328%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 −$19 -78%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $19 +$25 +128%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $29 −$29 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $50 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $38 −$37 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $62 +$37 +60%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $27 +$34 +124%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 +$73 +237%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $51 −$42 -82%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $51 +$141 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 +$41 +134%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $25 +$27 +107%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $57 +$93 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $82 −$80 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $30 +$3 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $24 +$14 +57%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $38 −$4 -11%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $61 −$3 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 6m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 SELL Over $5 20m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 BUY Over 26¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 43¢ $19 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $31 1h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $29 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 25h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $38 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $62 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $27 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $103 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 10¢ $9 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $15 3d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 52¢ $30 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $31 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $15 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $15 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $82 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $24 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 28¢ $34 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $463.06 · official $463.06 (match) · 53 history records