Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:52:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5da9…5d5d crypto 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (351 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+5%) realized +$23 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate65%133W / 73L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day351.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (351 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 206 +4.5% -5.4% 65% 58% -4.2%
≤30d 206 +4.5% -5.4% 65% 58% -4.2%
≤90d 206 +4.5% -5.4% 65% 58% -4.2%
all 206 +4.5% -5.4% 65% 58% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover351.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.4% 58% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -14.5% 47% -13.3%
15% -22.7% 41% -21.7%
20% -30.3% 32% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses133 / 73
Open positions1
Markets (closed)206 / 207
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day351.0
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Up 85¢ 96¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.49 · official $10.28 (match) · 560 history records