Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:40:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5da8…d61f crypto 413 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1884 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$4,105 (+2%) realized +$2,753 · open +$1,352
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +173% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +110% what you keep after slip
Net edge+110%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%130W / 451L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day1883.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,384now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,421
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1884 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+147.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 581 +173.1% +147.1% 22% 14% -9.6%
≤30d 581 +173.1% +147.1% 22% 14% -9.6%
≤90d 581 +173.1% +147.1% 22% 14% -9.6%
all 581 +173.1% +147.1% 22% 14% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1883.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +147.1% 14% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here +123.5% 12% -18.3%
15% +101.9% 12% -26.2%
20% +82.1% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +173% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$600) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +57% → late +288% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,384
Realized+$2,753
Unrealized+$1,352
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses130 / 451
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Open positions22
Markets (closed)581 / 413
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$600
Trades / day1883.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 581 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $300 $303 +$3 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $153 $297 +$144 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Down 25¢ 50¢ $153 $297 +$144 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $153 $297 +$144 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $153 $297 +$144 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $153 $297 +$144 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $153 $297 +$144 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $153 $297 +$144 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $111 $216 +$105 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $67 $131 +$63 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 23¢ 50¢ $55 $116 +$61 (+111%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $52 $101 +$49 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Down 25¢ 50¢ $50 $97 +$47 (+95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $20 $39 +$19 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+94%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Down 25¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+95%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 23¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+112%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 256 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2601%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2485%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $136 −$5 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $125 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 22 $19 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2603%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $113 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$6 +825%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 22 $88 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 22 $85 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $124 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $138 −$5 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 22 $128 −$4 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2768%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +3420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $68 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 22 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2656%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +3102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $148 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 22 $46 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 22 $44 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $30 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +3432%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $129 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $112 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$6 +1175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $98 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $93 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$6 +386%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 22 $153 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2982%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 22 $0 +$6 +2838%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,384.23 · official $3,381.48 (match) · 3500 history records