Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:57:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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5D 0x5da6…370d crypto 1440 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+2%) realized +$117 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%771W / 661L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day76.5pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days+$368
14 days+$336
30 days+$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$58
other 22% +$237
tech 1% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +7.1% -3.1% 75% 64% +7.6%
≤30d 960 -7.7% -16.5% 54% 47% -4.2%
≤90d 1432 -5.5% -14.5% 54% 48% -5.0%
all 1432 -5.5% -14.5% 54% 48% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 48% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 38% -14.1%
15% -30.2% 28% -22.4%
20% -37.0% 22% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses771 / 661
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1432 / 1440
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day76.5
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1432 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $62 $57 −$5 (-9%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 56¢ 39¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? No 8¢ 6¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-28%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? No 10¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? No 5¢ 3¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? Yes 32¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-43%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 16? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? No 90¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 308 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +43%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$9 +19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? Jun 16 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $100 +$34 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$18 +46%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 15? Jun 15 $48 −$35 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$6 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $31 +$18 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 14 $24 +$9 +35%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 14 $30 +$22 +72%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $48 +$73 +153%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $21 +$7 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $22 +$4 +21%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 12 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +24%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$8 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 7h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? SELL No 97¢ $22 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL No 98¢ $54 12h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 12h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 18? SELL Yes 97¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 88¢ $100 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 90¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 83¢ $23 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 81¢ $12 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 74¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 70¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $45 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $1 19h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $5 20h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 20h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 85¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 67¢ $20 20h
Will Solana reach $80 June 15-21? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 62¢ $12 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 63¢ $21 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $15 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.90 · official $80.90 (match) · 3500 history records