Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:26:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5da6…8a40 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-3%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate71%25W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day56.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.9% -10.3% 71% 29% -10.0%
≤30d 35 -0.9% -10.3% 71% 29% -10.0%
≤90d 35 -0.9% -10.3% 71% 29% -10.0%
all 35 -0.9% -10.3% 71% 29% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 29% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 26% -18.7%
15% -26.7% 14% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$23 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses25 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day56.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$15 +59%
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$36 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $29 +$22 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $32 +$2 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 21 $37 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $47 +$12 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $44 +$11 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$35 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $16 +$13 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $55 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $56 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$17 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $32 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $19 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $60 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $13 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $60 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $57 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $7 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records