Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5D 0x5da5…e620 other 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 1040d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7,082 (-33%) realized −$6,994 · open −$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -56% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate20%19W / 77L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$4,606
world 37% −$2,970
politics 17% +$1,376
crypto 3% −$464
finance 0% −$100
tech 0% −$85
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-60.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -30.6% -37.2% 50% 50% +22.5%
all 96 -56.3% -60.5% 20% 16% -42.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -60.5% 16% -42.1%
10% -64.3% 15% -47.7%
15% -67.7% 14% -52.7%
20% -70.9% 9% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% too few recent
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -56% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -84% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$121 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1040d coverage
Net worth$1,444
Realized−$6,994
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses19 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)96 / 104
History coverage1040d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $950 $911 −$39 (-4%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? No 20¢ 20¢ $500 $490 −$10 (-2%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-29%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-38%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Italy / Vatican before 2027? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+40%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $12 $3 −$9 (-72%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Hungary before 2027? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $20 $2 −$18 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $1,000 +$387 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Mar 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Mar 25 $11 +$14 +124%
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? Mar 25 $74 +$157 +214%
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 24 $1,054 +$28 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Mar 23 $2,714 −$816 -30%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Mar 23 $100 −$63 -63%
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Mar 23 $100 −$81 -81%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $964 −$931 -97%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Mar 23 $100 −$52 -52%
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 23 $451 −$91 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? Mar 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? Mar 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? Mar 03 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $55 −$24 -44%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $40 +$85 +214%
Will Hyperliquid be accused of insider trading? Feb 26 $241 −$241 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Feb 26 $40 −$8 -19%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $200 −$8 -4%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 19 $60 +$24 +39%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 19 $50 −$12 -24%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027? Feb 19 $20 +$1 +7%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027? Feb 19 $6 +$5 +82%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027? Feb 19 $30 −$18 -61%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? Feb 19 $34 −$22 -64%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey before 2027? Feb 19 $34 −$24 -71%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Feb 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 18 $220 −$101 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Feb 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike another country first? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Cuba next? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Jan 30 $100 −$47 -47%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by March 31? Jan 28 $20 −$3 -12%
Will India join the Board of Peace? Jan 28 $50 −$36 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 2AM ET Jan 27 $12 +$14 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 1AM ET Jan 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Caroline Ellison new boyfriend by January 31? Jan 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jan 16 $130 +$8 +6%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $40 −$15 -39%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 07 $129 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? Jan 05 $61 +$13 +22%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jan 03 $400 +$256 +64%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? Dec 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Zelenskyy wears a suit and tie during next Trump meeting? Dec 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $200 1h
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Saudi Arabia before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $20 6d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 6d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY No 20¢ $500 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 28¢ $724 6d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,500 7d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,387 69d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 71¢ $1,000 73d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $25 89d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 90d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 54¢ $345 91d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $280 91d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $79 91d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 56¢ $168 91d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 52¢ $128 91d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $1,725 91d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 13¢ $37 91d
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $19 91d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $33 91d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $48 91d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 26¢ $106 91d
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL No 21¢ $142 91d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? SELL No 21¢ $280 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 99d
Ukraine election called by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 99d
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 32¢ $74 103d
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY No 23¢ $20 103d
Backpack FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 3¢ $10 103d
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch? SELL No 60¢ $83 103d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on March 2? BUY Up 22¢ $100 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,444.36 · official $1,444.36 (match) · 353 history records