Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:51:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5da2…499f world 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-4%) realized −$15 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%10W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$9
other 21% −$2
sports 11% $0
politics 9% $0
weather 5% −$6
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 22% 0% -13.0%
≤90d 9 -3.2% -12.4% 22% 0% -13.0%
all 26 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 0% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -13.3%
10% -23.4% 0% -21.6%
15% -30.8% 0% -29.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses10 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage472d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 47¢ 46¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $25 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $26 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $25 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 25 $26 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $26 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 23 $2 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 22 $35 −$7 -21%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 30 $1 $0 +4%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? May 27 $11 $0 -2%
Will Lyon win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Houston win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana Apr 06 $13 $0 -2%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 04 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon go on Daily Show before April? Mar 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $3 $0 -9%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will the SPD win 15-20% of the vote in the German election? Mar 15 $13 $0 +1%
Morehead State vs. Lindenwood Mar 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on March 3? Mar 03 $19 −$6 -31%
Lehigh vs. Loyola Maryland Mar 03 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $27 1h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $3 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 68¢ $3 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $18 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $25 22d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $25 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $14 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $12 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $25 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 98¢ $25 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $26 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 76¢ $26 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $28 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $28 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $24 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $2 25d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $26 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $7 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $18 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $6 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes $2 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $0 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes $1 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 68¢ $28 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $35 30d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 355d
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $2 368d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.39 · official $26.39 (match) · 68 history records