Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5D 0x5d9c…60ac other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$422 (+12%) realized +$419 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$280per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$1,696now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$65
other 40% +$374
tech 14% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +41.0% +27.5% 86% 86% +11.5%
≤30d 7 +41.0% +27.5% 86% 86% +11.5%
≤90d 7 +41.0% +27.5% 86% 86% +11.5%
all 7 +41.0% +27.5% 86% 86% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.5% 86% +11.5%
10% +15.3% 57% +0.8%
15% +4.2% 43% -8.9%
20% -6.0% 43% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$100 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.33 per $1 lost it wins $5.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$1,696
Realized+$419
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage9d
Avg bet$280
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 22¢ $593 $535 −$58 (-10%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 66¢ 90¢ $200 $271 +$71 (+36%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $200 $193 −$7 (-3%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 49¢ 50¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $202 +$120 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $302 +$98 +32%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$96 +188%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $1,005 +$123 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 49¢ $102 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 13h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $202 14h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 15h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $302 18h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $503 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 20h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 20h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 66¢ $203 22h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $206 27h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 100¢ $1,128 27h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $251 2d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL Yes 25¢ $48 2d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 89¢ $301 8d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $703 8d
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $206 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,696.36 · official $1,696.36 (match) · 26 history records