trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +64.7% | +49.0% | 100% | 100% | +49.0% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -56.9% | -61.0% | 29% | 29% | -61.2% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -56.9% | -61.0% | 29% | 29% | -61.2% |
| all | 26 | -57.5% | -61.6% | 31% | 23% | -76.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -61.6% | 23% | -76.9% |
| 10% | -65.2% | 23% | -79.1% |
| 15% | -68.6% | 23% | -81.1% |
| 20% | -71.7% | 8% | -83.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $101 | +$65 | +65% |
| Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $50 | +$18 | +36% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $101 | +$40 | +40% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $101 | +$48 | +48% |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 14 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 14 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 14 | $50 | −$50 | -99% |
| Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 14 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $203 | −$200 | -98% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $16 | −$15 | -97% |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $103 | −$100 | -97% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $2 | −$2 | -97% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26? | Jun 13 | $20 | +$9 | +44% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET | Mar 06 | $10 | +$7 | +71% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? | Dec 24 | $31 | −$31 | -100% |
| Will China unban Bitcoin in 2025? | Dec 24 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | Dec 24 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Gold (GC) Up or Down on December 24? | Dec 24 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on October | Oct 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will a Democrat win Iowa Presidential Election? | Nov 05 | $107 | −$107 | -100% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 05 | $590 | −$590 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 05 | $300 | −$300 | -100% |