Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:51:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d98…e026 world 74 markets active 0h ago coverage 523d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%21W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$7
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 24% −$3
politics 15% −$1
sports 12% −$2
economics 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.3% -8.3% 50% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 25 -0.4% -9.9% 28% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 67 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 1% -9.4%
all 72 -4.5% -13.6% 29% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 3% -9.8%
10% -21.8% 1% -18.4%
15% -29.4% 1% -26.3%
20% -36.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

523d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses21 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)72 / 74
History coverage523d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $69 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $52 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $82 +$5 +6%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $91 +$2 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $2 $0 -14%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $65 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $31 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 27 $94 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $32 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $12 +$2 +19%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $3 $0 -14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 18 $31 −$1 -3%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $31 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $61 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $22 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $94 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $60 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $34 −$1 -2%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $32 $0 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $64 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 15 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $45 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 11m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $1 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $12 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $26 16h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $39 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $21 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $18 24h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $39 24h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 30h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $13 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $20 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 38h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 43h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $23 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $23 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $33 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $33 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 9d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $34 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $2 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.25 · official $0.00 · 272 history records