Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:23:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d96…5203 world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$18 (+1%) realized +$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$30
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% +$28
politics 22% −$2
other 15% +$1
sports 8% +$1
economics 4% +$1
finance 1% $0
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +3.7% -6.1% 75% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 24 +3.5% -6.4% 50% 8% -7.6%
≤90d 70 +2.9% -6.9% 37% 6% -8.8%
all 77 +1.5% -8.1% 38% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 8% -9.1%
10% -16.9% 6% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 5% -25.7%
20% -32.3% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 48
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)77 / 80
History coverage520d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 83¢ 83¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $68 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $172 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $50 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $46 +$1 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $65 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $69 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $58 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $45 +$30 +66%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $82 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $46 −$1 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $101 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $81 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $67 −$4 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $14 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $41 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $45 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $68 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $105 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $47 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $4 $0 +7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $91 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $45 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $46 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $95 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $1 $0 -31%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 23 $154 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $52 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $45 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $104 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $64 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $46 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 18 $2 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $42 +$1 +2%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $68 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $24 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $44 6h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $68 8h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $37 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $21 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 70¢ $10 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $14 24h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $54 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $45 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $8 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $59 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $56 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $3 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.05 · official $68.06 (match) · 361 history records