Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
5D 0x5d92…f41a crypto 18 markets active 6d ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$214 (-85%) realized −$214 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate76%13W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$210
politics 10% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
all 17 -11.7% -20.1% 76% 0% -89.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.1% 0% -89.7%
10% -27.8% 0% -90.7%
15% -34.8% 0% -91.6%
20% -41.2% 0% -92.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$54 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$214
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses13 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage454d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $6 $0 -1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 1AM ET Dec 10 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 6d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 96¢ $6 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 6d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $6 75d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $6 87d
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 1AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $210 190d
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 229d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 390d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $1 404d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 439d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 446d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 453d
Solana above $145 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 460d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.71 · official $10.71 (match) · 81 history records