Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d92…48e4 sports 96 markets active 3h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$101 (+2%) realized +$207 · open −$106
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate84%76W / 15L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$93
14 days+$196
30 days+$220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$186
world 8% −$83
other 6% +$17
politics 1% +$8
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +4.9% -5.1% 80% 45% -6.8%
≤30d 88 +7.6% -2.7% 83% 49% -5.3%
≤90d 91 +7.5% -2.8% 84% 47% -5.2%
all 91 +7.5% -2.8% 84% 47% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 47% -5.2%
10% -12.1% 23% -14.3%
15% -20.6% 16% -22.6%
20% -28.3% 8% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$17 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses76 / 15
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions25
Markets (closed)91 / 96
History coverage51d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 91¢ 88¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ $100 $1 −$99 (-99%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Yonhy Lescano win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Fiorella Molinelli win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Roberto Chiabra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Vladimir Cerrón win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Marisol Pérez Tello win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will José Luna win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will George Forsyth win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Mesías Guevara win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Mario Vizcarra win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will José Williams win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Rafael Belaúnde Llosa win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Fernando Olivera win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $85 +$17 +20%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $43 +$2 +4%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $40 +$5 +12%
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan Jun 16 $136 −$12 -9%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $10 +$1 +8%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $15 −$10 -67%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $186 −$47 -25%
Will the Referendum on the Civilian Service Act be approved in Switzer Jun 16 $25 +$11 +45%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 16 $30 +$8 +27%
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Jun 16 $40 +$8 +20%
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou Jun 16 $60 +$7 +12%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $130 +$1 +1%
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Jun 16 $45 +$3 +6%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $68 +$10 +14%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $80 +$9 +11%
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Jun 16 $40 +$5 +12%
ITF Klosters: Petra Sedlackova vs Urszula Radwanska Jun 16 $8 +$3 +40%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $80 +$3 +4%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 16 $95 +$3 +3%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chengyiyi Yuan vs Han Shi Jun 16 $5 +$3 +63%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $22 +$16 +73%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $164 +$1 +1%
ITF Sapporo: Kanon Sawashiro vs Yujin Kim Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $16 +$2 +12%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 +$3 +2%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $33 +$1 +2%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $50 −$43 -86%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Maria Timofeeva vs Renata Za Jun 15 $40 +$3 +8%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $160 +$6 +4%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $150 +$5 +3%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $70 −$1 -1%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $12 +$16 +129%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $80 +$17 +22%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 12 $50 +$1 +2%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $5 +$5 +102%
ITF Decatur: Sahaja Yamalapalli vs Ekaterina Khayrutdinova Jun 12 $15 +$6 +41%
Tucuman: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $45 +$14 +30%
Cattolica: Raul Brancaccio vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 12 $43 +$1 +3%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $40 +$3 +7%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $37 +$4 +10%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 12 $27 +$10 +36%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $23 +$5 +21%
ITF Hurghada: Anastasia Tikhonova vs Sandra Samir Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 65¢ $10 2h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 80¢ $20 2h
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny BUY Martin Krumich 88¢ $55 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 96¢ $43 3h
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux BUY Cosme de Ravel 89¢ $40 3h
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan BUY Maxim Mrva 97¢ $120 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva SELL Milos Karol 35¢ $11 3h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch SELL Chris Rodesch 15¢ $5 3h
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Milos Karol 31¢ $10 3h
Poznan: Maxim Mrva vs Akira Santillan BUY Akira Santillan 10¢ $15 3h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Chris Rodesch 10¢ $15 3h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 76¢ $101 4h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Jakub Mensik $8 4h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Florian Broska 92¢ $10 5h
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer BUY Florian Broska 73¢ $20 5h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 87¢ $85 5h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Henry Searle 83¢ $40 5h
Dublin: Benjamin Willwerth vs Yi Zhou BUY Yi Zhou 89¢ $60 5h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu BUY Daniel Jade 99¢ $130 6h
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini BUY Mees Rottgering 94¢ $45 7h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 87¢ $18 7h
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire BUY Michele Ribecai 90¢ $80 7h
ITF Klosters: Petra Sedlackova vs Urszula Radwanska SELL Urszula Radwanska 40¢ $9 7h
ITF Klosters: Petra Sedlackova vs Urszula Radwanska SELL Urszula Radwanska 40¢ $2 7h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Daniel Galan 87¢ $50 8h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Elena Milovanovic 96¢ $80 8h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Julia Grabher 89¢ $40 8h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chengyiyi Yuan vs Han Shi SELL Chengyiyi Yuan 40¢ $2 8h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chengyiyi Yuan vs Han Shi SELL Chengyiyi Yuan 40¢ $0 8h
ITF Zhengzhou: Chengyiyi Yuan vs Han Shi SELL Chengyiyi Yuan 40¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.04 · official $20.04 (match) · 226 history records