Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5d90…3c41 crypto 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$90 (-9%) realized −$87 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%97W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$101
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 44% −$115
crypto 24% −$1
weather 19% −$34
other 9% +$20
politics 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -5.7% -14.7% 50% 50% -15.8%
≤30d 139 -35.9% -42.0% 32% 32% -28.3%
≤90d 266 -11.9% -20.3% 36% 36% -21.4%
all 266 -11.9% -20.3% 36% 36% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 36% -21.4%
10% -27.9% 35% -28.9%
15% -34.9% 33% -35.8%
20% -41.3% 26% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses97 / 169
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions8
Markets (closed)266 / 274
History coverage40d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 266 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 54¢ 62¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will the Democrats win the Illinois governor race in 2026? No 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina governor race in 2026? No 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will the Republicans win the Tennessee governor race in 2026? No 16¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +69%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$8 +160%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $2 +$4 +178%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$18 -89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$10 +51%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $20 +$11 +56%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $21 +$20 +99%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $20 +$9 +42%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$10 -51%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $20 +$8 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$8 +39%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $2 +$1 +49%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $2 +$2 +91%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +71%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $2 +$2 +95%
LoL: LOS vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $2 +$1 +49%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $2 +$3 +140%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs VooDooSh Club (BO5) - Winline Star Series Playo Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $2 +$2 +105%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Playo Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2 +$1 +69%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $2 +$2 +96%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2 +$2 +81%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2 +$2 +114%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $2 +$1 +58%
Dota 2: Rostikfacekid Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Serie Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $2 +$2 +91%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $2 +$1 +40%
Dota 2: Rostik999 Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Jun 03 $2 +$3 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 57m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $5 8h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $5 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $13 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $5 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $2 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 8¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $20 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $32 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $41 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $21 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 5d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $2 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $20 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 6d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 54¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.07 · official $13.07 (match) · 711 history records