Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d8f…f80f other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+3%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$24
world 34% −$2
politics 17% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 7 -0.3% -9.8% 29% 0% -10.0%
all 26 +32.0% +19.4% 23% 4% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.4% 4% -6.6%
10% +8.0% 4% -15.5%
15% -2.5% 4% -23.7%
20% -12.0% 4% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×9.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.29 per $1 lost it wins $6.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage396d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 79¢ 79¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $28 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $41 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $24 +$1 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $89 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $45 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 24 $43 −$2 -4%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 24 $3 +$24 +900%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Salzburg win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ty Dillon win The Great American Getaway 400? Jun 22 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Jun 20 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Israel declare war on Iran by Friday? Jun 20 $1 $0 -38%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 15 $27 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 15 $2 $0 -30%
Will George Russell finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? May 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 25 $25 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 24 $2 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 23 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $46 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $27 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $28 9h
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $42 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $41 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $25 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $44 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $44 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $44 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $45 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $45 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $45 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $45 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $45 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $25 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $43 29d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $27 180d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $24 364d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $24 365d
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the SELL No 99¢ $24 365d
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the BUY No 99¢ $24 365d
Will Salzburg win the FIFA Club World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $24 365d
Will Salzburg win the FIFA Club World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $24 366d
Will Ty Dillon win The Great American Getaway 400? SELL No 99¢ $24 366d
Will Ty Dillon win The Great American Getaway 400? BUY No 99¢ $24 366d
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? SELL No 99¢ $24 366d
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? BUY No 99¢ $24 366d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.82 · official $45.82 (match) · 70 history records