Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5d8b…5300
world · 101 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$47 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$47 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$95
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses32 / 68
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage310d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 1 History 100 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $95 $95 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $229 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $161 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $85 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $13 +$3 +22%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $218 −$1 -1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $90 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $91 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $314 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $249 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $81 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $162 +$2 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $190 −$1 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $105 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $252 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $183 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $90 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $31 −$7 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $10 −$1 -11%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 21 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $9 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $109 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 17 $76 −$1 -2%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $24 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $630 −$6 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $693 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $18 +$4 +21%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 25 $627 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $625 +$3 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $624 +$2 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $47 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jan 30 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Dec 30 $7 $0 -1%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 23 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Nov 19 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 43% −$6
sports 30% −$1
other 16% −$38
politics 6% $0
finance 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $95 58m
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $86 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $86 10h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $79 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $3 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $31 17h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $45 17h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $86 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $19 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $66 29h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $15 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 35h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $83 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $76 42h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 42h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $83 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $18 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $65 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $82 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $55 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $91 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $90 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $91 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $91 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $7 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +1.8% -7.9% 42% 8% -9.4%
≤30d 27 -0.6% -10.0% 37% 4% -9.7%
≤90d 40 +9.2% -1.2% 35% 8% -9.6%
all 100 +3.0% -6.8% 32% 4% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 4% -10.1%
10% -15.7% 1% -18.7%
15% -23.9% 1% -26.6%
20% -31.3% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.40 · official $94.85 (match) · 364 history records