Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:49:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d8a…f2d9 world 25 markets active 5h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$22,964 (+15%) realized +$22,964 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate67%16W / 8L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$6,200per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$602est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16,339
7 days+$32,205
14 days+$31,115
30 days+$31,272
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$23,625
sports 27% +$7,884
world 25% +$1,093
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +33.5% +20.8% 73% 55% +20.4%
≤30d 17 +17.4% +6.2% 71% 53% +11.2%
≤90d 24 +10.3% -0.2% 67% 46% +9.6%
all 24 +10.3% -0.2% 67% 46% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.2% 46% +9.6%
10% ← realistic here -9.7% 33% -0.9%
15% -18.4% 29% -10.5%
20% -26.4% 21% -19.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$9,718) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2,785 vs −$1,708 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22,964
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses16 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$602
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage89d
Avg bet$6,200
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $240 −$136 -57%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $51 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20,691 +$13,752 +66%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $9,718 +$636 +6%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19,997 +$5 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19,924 −$2,226 -11%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $9,952 +$4,309 +43%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $4,982 +$9,773 +196%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 Jun 19 $1,993 +$1,481 +74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,023 +$2,725 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $4,939 +$1,886 +38%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $248 −$242 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $4,974 +$653 +13%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $14,948 +$3,206 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,996 +$4,500 +90%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9,357 −$9,208 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $4,969 +$157 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $1,996 −$12 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 05 $8,508 +$633 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 05 $1,000 +$114 +11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 03 $5 −$5 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $1,000 +$334 +33%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1,396 −$128 -9%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 25 $3,985 +$394 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $138 4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 49¢ $92 4h
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $101 4h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $34,443 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 24¢ $457 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10,120 25h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10,114 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 89¢ $10,354 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 94¢ $10,282 29h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $9,718 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 89¢ $9,720 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $19,997 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $17,697 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $9,834 31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10,090 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $14,261 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $9,952 47h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND BUY $103 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 202 BUY 57¢ $1,993 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 33¢ $4,982 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7,748 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $6,826 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4,939 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $5,023 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $248 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $2,813 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 72¢ $2,815 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $3,672 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1,303 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records