Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d85…f11f sports 346 markets active 1h ago coverage 651d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%24W / 321L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$22
14 days−$39
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$25
politics 28% −$14
other 27% −$28
economics 4% −$2
world 3% −$8
crypto 2% −$2
tech 2% −$3
culture 1% −$4
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.0% -10.4% 12% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 80 -0.9% -10.3% 9% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 83 -0.9% -10.3% 8% 0% -10.3%
all 345 -0.3% -9.8% 7% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

651d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses24 / 321
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)345 / 346
History coverage651d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 345 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $74 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 16 $66 $0 +1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $200 −$3 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 15 $69 $0 +0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $237 −$3 -1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $169 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $61 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $105 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $63 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $118 −$1 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 12 $54 −$1 -2%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $92 −$1 -1%
Will USA reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $62 −$2 -3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 10 $113 −$2 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $46 $0 -1%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 10 $64 −$1 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $105 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $103 −$1 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 08 $55 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $51 −$1 -2%
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 08 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $158 $0 -0%
Will Spain advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $55 −$2 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 07 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $165 −$1 -1%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 06 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $53 −$2 -4%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 06 $64 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $55 −$2 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $82 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $48 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $111 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $105 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $153 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $18 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $70 45m
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $70 1h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $70 5h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $68 5h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $68 9h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $65 10h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $41 16h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $25 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $73 16h
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $74 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 23h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 27h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $63 27h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $63 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $66 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $66 38h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 38h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $7 45h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 45h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $0 45h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $69 46h
Will Ecuador reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $69 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $65 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $66 2d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 92¢ $65 2d
Will Croatia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $66 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 97¢ $74 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $74 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.56 · official $69.56 (match) · 1317 history records