Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:54:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5d81…360e
sports · 304 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$253 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$370 · open −$118
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$458
Realized+$370
Unrealized−$118
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses136 / 148
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions45
Markets (closed)284 / 304
History coverage56d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day52.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 45 History 284 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$11
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 73¢ 48¢ $250 $167 −$83 (-33%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 83¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $25 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 56¢ 84¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 60¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+16%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 75¢ 90¢ $12 $15 +$2 (+19%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+12%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+7%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 61¢ 62¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 90¢ 94¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+5%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 87¢ 91¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+4%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 93¢ 99¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+7%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 39¢ 18¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-55%)
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win MSI 2026? Yes 60¢ 68¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 68¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 38¢ 57¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+50%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 49¢ 90¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+86%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? No 80¢ 86¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+8%)
XRP Up or Down - February 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Down 100¢ 97¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 74¢ 80¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $100 in March? Jun 12 $0 −$1 -1866%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in March? Jun 12 $0 −$2 -2303%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 6? Jun 12 $0 −$3 -3386%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 $0 +19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $3 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -7%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 12? Jun 10 $3 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 07 $3 $0 +14%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +8%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +25%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 05 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 in June? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in June? Jun 05 $2 +$6 +245%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 $0 +34%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1 +$2 +142%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 04 $6 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -21%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $51 −$10 -19%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $63 −$5 -8%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +15%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? Jun 01 $2 $0 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 -26%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 May 31 $2 +$1 +78%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1 +$1 +121%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 31 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $13 +$22 +178%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $9 −$2 -20%
Phoenix Mercury vs. New York Liberty May 30 $2 +$1 +48%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1 $0 -4%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 29 $1 +$2 +116%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $2 +$1 +44%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $1 −$1 -52%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 31% −$18
sports 25% +$88
other 21% −$63
crypto 21% +$298
politics 3% −$47
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $2 1m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 5m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 11m
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 25m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $0 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 67¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 66¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $1 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 2h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 4h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 4h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 7h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $1 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $1 9h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $1 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $2 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 12h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 12h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 12h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 13h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 13h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 13h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 13h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $2 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -34.9% -41.1% 38% 19% -23.7%
≤30d 90 +20.1% +8.6% 50% 40% -6.7%
≤90d 284 +21.0% +9.5% 48% 38% +0.6%
all 284 +21.0% +9.5% 48% 38% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover52.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.5% 38% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -1.0% 31% -9.1%
15% -10.6% 27% -17.8%
20% -19.3% 24% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $457.75 · official $455.50 (match) · 3500 history records