Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:49:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d81…8d1a crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$315 (-14%) realized −$315 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$356
sports 18% +$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 33% -21.1%
≤30d 45 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 33% -21.1%
≤90d 45 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 33% -21.1%
all 45 -14.0% -22.2% 42% 33% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 33% -21.1%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 27% -28.6%
15% -36.4% 24% -35.5%
20% -42.7% 20% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$41 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$315
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$114 +433%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$22 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$36 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$45 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$53 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$52 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$63 +240%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$95 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $76 +$22 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$4 +17%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $97 +$85 +88%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $102 +$198 +194%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $27 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $52 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $62 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $51 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 9h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $102 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records