Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5D 0x5d75…3d44 sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,670 (+7%) realized +$7,370 · open +$300
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%17W / 11L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,583per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$1,087est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$23,533now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$11,044
other 30% +$14,213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.8% -1.5% 56% 56% -6.0%
≤30d 16 +8.8% -1.5% 56% 56% -6.0%
≤90d 28 +1.2% -8.4% 61% 39% -6.8%
all 28 +1.2% -8.4% 61% 39% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 39% -6.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 39% -15.7%
15% -25.2% 36% -23.8%
20% -32.5% 36% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$4,679) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,538 vs −$3,662 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$23,533
Realized+$7,370
Unrealized+$300
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses17 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$1,087
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage57d
Avg bet$3,583
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium leading at halftime? No 48¢ 50¢ $9,600 $9,900 +$300 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $4,679 −$4,679 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $7,089 +$6,544 +92%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10,000 +$10,000 +100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,689 −$1,689 -100%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $115 +$91 +79%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $2,632 +$2,338 +89%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $4,300 +$5,700 +133%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $4,200 −$4,200 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $422 +$475 +113%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4,400 +$5,600 +127%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $4,600 −$4,600 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $14,148 +$3,852 +27%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $15,375 −$15,300 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $8,250 +$6,750 +82%
FC København vs. Vejle BK: O/U 2.5 Apr 29 $758 −$758 -100%
Alanyaspor vs. Samsunspor: O/U 3.5 Apr 29 $737 −$737 -100%
Alanyaspor vs. Samsunspor: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $286 +$10 +4%
Deportivo Alavés vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5 Apr 27 $848 −$848 -100%
AC Milan vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 27 $987 +$996 +101%
CF Estrela da Amadora vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $104 +$2 +2%
FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 4.5 Apr 26 $138 +$3 +2%
FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5 Apr 26 $159 +$6 +4%
Viborg FF vs. FC Nordsjælland: O/U 1.5 Apr 26 $156 +$6 +4%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $629 +$776 +124%
Perth Glory FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $33 +$1 +4%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $40 −$20 -51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $63 46m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $24 46m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $108 47m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $5 47m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1,288 48m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $9 48m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1 48m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $12 48m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $3 48m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $18 48m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1,320 49m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1 49m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $12 49m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $129 49m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1,318 50m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $134 50m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $90 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $266 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1,057 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $75 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $9 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $23 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $5 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $37 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $23 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $896 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1,317 51m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $1,342 52m
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 48¢ $16 52m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 42¢ $31 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,533.10 · official $23,533.10 (match) · 294 history records