Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

5D 0x5d74…1870 politics 12 markets active 1d ago coverage 698d

RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$1,077 (+28%) realized +$1,090 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip

Net edge-47%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%3W / 8L

Drawdown30%max

Avg bet$325per market

Trades / day0.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$277now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 698d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-46.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	no closed markets
all	11	-41.1%	-46.7%	27%	27%	+18.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-46.7%	27%	+18.2%
10%	-51.8%	18%	+6.9%
15%	-56.5%	18%	-3.4%
20%	-60.8%	18%	-12.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 48% · top 2 94% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI — too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -41% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$622 vs −$95 · ×6.54 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage

Net worth$277

Realized+$1,090

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses3 / 8

Open positions1

Markets (closed)11 / 12

History coverage698d

Avg bet$325

Trades / day0.0

Drawdown30%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Yes	18¢	18¢	$290	$277	−$13 (-4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Biden seen in public today?	Nov 11	$25	−$25	-100%
Will Joe Biden make an appearance by Wednesday?	Nov 11	$50	−$50	-100%
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?	Nov 11	$38	−$38	-100%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?	Nov 11	$100	−$100	-100%
Kamala president by Friday?	Nov 11	$100	−$100	-100%
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31?	Nov 11	$25	−$25	-100%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi	Nov 11	$462	+$851	+184%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Nov 11	$975	+$900	+92%
Will Biden finish his term?	Oct 21	$786	−$324	-41%
Biden drops out of presidential race?	Jul 22	$945	+$116	+12%
Will Trump say "ear" during RNC speech?	Jul 22	$100	−$100	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	BUY Yes	19¢	$101	34h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	BUY Yes	18¢	$198	4d
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi	BUY Yes	35¢	$462	604d
Will Biden finish his term?	SELL No	10¢	$462	604d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	BUY Yes	52¢	$975	645d
Biden resigns from presidency by August 31?	BUY Yes	0¢	$25	660d
Will Biden finish his term?	BUY No	17¢	$786	660d
Biden seen in public today?	BUY No	24¢	$25	694d
Kamala president by Friday?	BUY Yes	6¢	$100	694d
Will Joe Biden make an appearance by Wednesday?	BUY No	17¢	$50	694d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?	BUY Yes	6¢	$100	697d
Biden drops out of presidential race?	BUY Yes	89¢	$945	699d
Will Trump say "ear" during RNC speech?	BUY No	30¢	$16	699d
Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?	BUY Yes	8¢	$38	699d
Will Trump say "ear" during RNC speech?	BUY No	30¢	$2	699d
Will Trump say "ear" during RNC speech?	BUY No	30¢	$60	699d
Will Trump say "ear" during RNC speech?	BUY No	30¢	$22	699d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $276.80 · official $276.80 (match) · 32 history records