Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d71…8da4 sports 257 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (60 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,694 (+1%) realized +$2,247 · open −$553
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate66%168W / 86L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$686per market
Trades / day59.6pace
Fees−$3,484est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$453now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$3,958
other 7% +$1,666
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (60 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +30.6% +18.2% 78% 74% +15.2%
≤30d 108 +10.6% +0.0% 64% 62% +11.3%
≤90d 254 +9.2% -1.2% 66% 55% -5.8%
all 254 +9.2% -1.2% 66% 55% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover59.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.2% 55% -5.8%
10% -10.7% 42% -14.8%
15% ← realistic here -19.3% 29% -23.1%
20% -27.2% 19% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$691) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$193 vs −$310 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$453
Realized+$2,247
Unrealized−$553
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses168 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$3,484
Open positions3
Markets (closed)254 / 257
History coverage56d ⚠
Avg bet$686
Trades / day59.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $483 $452 −$31 (-6%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 14¢ 0¢ $140 $0 −$139 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner T1 Academy 51¢ 0¢ $382 $0 −$382 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $1,047 +$202 +19%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $410 +$282 +69%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $213 +$37 +18%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $195 +$55 +28%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $132 +$218 +165%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $811 +$104 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $88 +$55 +62%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $317 +$154 +49%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $670 +$330 +49%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $790 +$210 +27%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $69 +$56 +82%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $70 +$130 +186%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $62 +$110 +177%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $660 +$340 +52%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $370 +$592 +160%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $210 +$40 +19%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $863 +$39 +4%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $697 −$512 -74%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $625 +$270 +43%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $179 −$177 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $212 +$282 +133%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,565 +$50 +3%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $140 −$140 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,636 +$908 +56%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $468 +$782 +167%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $425 +$190 +45%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $830 −$630 -76%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $370 −$165 -45%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $115 +$135 +117%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $525 +$190 +36%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $134 −$104 -78%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $802 +$197 +25%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $582 −$582 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $230 −$230 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $301 +$127 +42%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $190 +$60 +32%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $435 +$65 +15%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $345 +$138 +40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $555 +$195 +35%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $265 +$345 +130%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $255 +$245 +96%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $306 +$60 +20%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $165 +$80 +48%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $105 +$82 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $452 +$148 +33%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 10 $380 +$107 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $248 49m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $6 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $78 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $4 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $50 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $5 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $22 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $1 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $4 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $50 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $26 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $153 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $19 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $2 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 89¢ $25 51m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $57 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $3 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $15 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $14 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $42 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 55¢ $137 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $142 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 14¢ $47 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 14¢ $95 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $56 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $28 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 51¢ $128 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 46¢ $115 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $97 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 56¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.87 · official $452.87 (match) · 3500 history records