Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:18:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d6f…7c07 world 52 markets active 2h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
other 21% −$1
politics 18% $0
sports 10% $0
crypto 6% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 17 -0.4% -9.8% 24% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -0.4% -9.8% 24% 0% -9.9%
all 51 -0.3% -9.8% 20% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage299d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 83¢ 86¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $86 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $85 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $64 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $41 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $42 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $65 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $42 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $43 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 15 $34 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 13 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 11 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 11 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 11 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Sep 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 1k-2.5k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 09 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $9 $0 -3%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by August 31? Aug 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Aug 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 28 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $39 2h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $43 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 38¢ $43 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $9 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $9 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $26 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $43 14h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $43 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $15 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $28 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $1 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $38 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $34 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $45 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $25 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $20 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $19 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $19 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $7 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $34 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 97¢ $41 10d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $37 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 62¢ $4 12d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $42 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 13d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.19 · official $40.19 (match) · 168 history records