Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5D 0x5d6d…0510 world 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$498 (+2%) realized +$505 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate70%42W / 18L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$416per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,861now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$138
14 days+$136
30 days+$212
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 33% −$16
world 29% +$426
crypto 18% +$262
other 16% +$2
economics 3% −$219
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +18.6% +7.3% 100% 67% +4.5%
≤30d 13 +4.4% -5.6% 69% 23% -6.5%
≤90d 27 +10.2% -0.3% 78% 30% -4.3%
all 60 +1.7% -8.0% 70% 20% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 20% -8.1%
10% -16.8% 8% -16.9%
15% -24.8% 2% -24.9%
20% -32.2% 2% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$750) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.92 per $1 lost it wins $1.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$1,861
Realized+$505
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses42 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)60 / 77
History coverage209d
Avg bet$416
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 94¢ 94¢ $470 $471 +$2 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $321 $321 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 92¢ $245 $258 +$13 (+5%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $200 $206 +$6 (+3%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $176 $175 −$1 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $127 $132 +$5 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 84¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+55%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $61 $61 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $71 $50 −$21 (-29%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$1 (+12%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $2 −$38 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 21 $115 +$29 +25%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 21 $470 +$47 +10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $300 +$61 +20%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $849 +$5 +1%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $167 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 09 $50 −$2 -5%
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele Jun 08 $531 −$6 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 03 $415 +$5 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $899 +$96 +11%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,363 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? May 30 $405 −$35 -9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $540 +$15 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? May 08 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? May 08 $144 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 08 $251 +$64 +26%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? May 08 $300 +$28 +9%
Will Canada strike Iran by April 30? May 08 $1,609 +$5 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 11 $750 +$118 +16%
Will UK strike Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $30 +$2 +7%
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $70 +$4 +6%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 29 $786 +$117 +15%
China x Japan military clash before 2027? Mar 29 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 26 $618 +$75 +12%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Mar 23 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Mar 23 $14 +$16 +114%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Mar 14 $170 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $500 −$84 -17%
Will Sarah Knafo win the Paris mayor election? Mar 09 $988 +$10 +1%
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? Mar 08 $250 −$12 -5%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 06 $200 −$33 -16%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Feb 15 $800 −$73 -9%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 15 $500 −$224 -45%
US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Feb 08 $300 −$6 -2%
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Feb 08 $200 +$12 +6%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by January 31? Feb 06 $1,624 +$3 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jan 29 $1,360 +$32 +2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 29 $40 +$13 +33%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jan 25 $280 −$2 -1%
Will Tim Walz resign by January 31? Jan 22 $1,343 +$17 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in January? Jan 15 $500 +$4 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Donald Trump say "Hanukkah" or "Chanukah" during Israel President Jan 05 $36 +$10 +27%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 05 $660 +$4 +1%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 05 $1,620 +$55 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $400 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $162 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $176 1h
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 41¢ $63 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 45¢ $41 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $33 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $26 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 56¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $27 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $162 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $144 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? SELL No 93¢ $228 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $35 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $26 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $32 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $68 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $41 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $40 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $300 8d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $470 8d
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $167 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 95¢ $201 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $57 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $60 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $48 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $12 9d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $60 10d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $310 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,861.04 · official $1,951.04 · 419 history records