Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d69…1ccf other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$65 (-19%) realized −$24 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$224
other 15% −$6
world 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-53.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -48.5% -53.4% 6% 6% -83.3%
≤30d 17 -48.5% -53.4% 6% 6% -83.3%
≤90d 17 -48.5% -53.4% 6% 6% -83.3%
all 17 -48.5% -53.4% 6% 6% -83.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.4% 6% -83.3%
10% -57.8% 6% -84.9%
15% -61.9% 6% -86.4%
20% -65.6% 6% -87.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -82% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$15 · ×2.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$24
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $97 $56 −$41 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $34 −$33 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 +$40 +776%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 4h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $123 4h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 5h
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 7h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 9h
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 9h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $45 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.90 · official $114.23 · 20 history records