Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:44:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5D
0x5d67…eb9c
world · 68 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$34 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$33 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized+$33
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses14 / 52
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)66 / 68
History coverage274d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 2 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$5
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $9 $9 +$1 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 52¢ 52¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $145 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $148 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $102 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $291 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $164 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $149 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $94 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $154 −$6 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $185 −$1 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $133 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $145 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $104 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $414 +$4 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $118 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $69 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $108 +$4 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $193 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $4 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $77 −$2 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 26 $95 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $206 −$3 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $102 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $9 $0 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $83 +$68 +82%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $92 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $103 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 20 $102 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 19 $93 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 19 $94 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $94 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $45 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $94 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $679 −$4 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $165 −$1 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $33 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jan 31 $45 −$27 -60%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $71 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $144 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $49 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $9 +$3 +35%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $57 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% +$60
other 23% −$28
sports 15% +$1
politics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $64 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $19 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $40 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $4 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $23 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $96 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $17 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $25 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $103 16h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $76 18h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $69 18h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $41 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $77 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $24 23h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $148 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $33 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 93¢ $67 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 94¢ $5 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $164 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $164 3d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $53 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $40 4d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $39 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 34 +2.1% -7.6% 26% 3% -8.3%
≤90d 40 +1.9% -7.8% 28% 2% -8.6%
all 66 +0.8% -8.8% 21% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 3% -9.1%
10% -17.5% 3% -17.8%
15% -25.5% 2% -25.7%
20% -32.8% 2% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.66 · official $9.34 (match) · 464 history records