Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5D 0x5d66…25e0 crypto 1739 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,226 (+1%) realized +$2,226 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%1646W / 93L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 -3.0% -12.3% 91% 10% -12.3%
≤30d 446 -2.8% -12.0% 92% 9% -12.0%
≤90d 1739 -1.0% -10.4% 95% 8% -10.1%
all 1739 -1.0% -10.4% 95% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 8% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$186 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,226
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1646 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1739 / 1739
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$218
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1739 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $35 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $37 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 25 $35 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 25 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 25 $35 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $37 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $36 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $36 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $36 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $36 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $35 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $35 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $37 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $35 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $36 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $35 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $35 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $36 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $36 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $36 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $36 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $35 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $36 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $36 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $36 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records