Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:58:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d66…6c79 sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$183 (+6%) realized +$52 · open +$131
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day9.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$431now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$920
other 28% +$866
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +3.6% -6.2% 38% 38% -16.2%
≤30d 13 +3.6% -6.2% 38% 38% -16.2%
≤90d 13 +3.6% -6.2% 38% 38% -16.2%
all 13 +3.6% -6.2% 38% 38% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 38% -16.2%
10% -15.2% 38% -24.2%
15% -23.4% 38% -31.5%
20% -30.9% 38% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +79% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$253 vs −$181 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$431
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$131
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day9.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 78¢ $300 $431 +$131 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $434 −$335 -77%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $294 +$445 +152%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $204 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $54 −$53 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $92 +$105 +114%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $250 −$158 -63%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $89 +$162 +181%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $651 −$563 -86%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $200 +$452 +226%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 +$101 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 14¢ $99 12m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 59¢ $434 1h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $739 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $294 7h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $204 7h
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $54 20h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 20h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 20h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 46¢ $92 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $92 22h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $250 23h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 35¢ $89 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 7¢ $88 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $651 26h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $200 35h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $100 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.56 · official $430.56 (match) · 22 history records