Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:15:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5D 0x5d64…bfab other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-8%) realized −$3 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%9W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$2
politics 15% −$3
world 6% +$1
sports 4% $0
economics 2% +$1
culture 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -44.6% -49.9% 30% 30% -55.5%
≤30d 14 +15.5% +4.5% 50% 50% -5.3%
≤90d 14 +15.5% +4.5% 50% 50% -5.3%
all 28 -16.0% -24.0% 32% 32% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 32% -18.4%
10% -31.3% 29% -26.2%
15% -37.9% 29% -33.4%
20% -44.0% 25% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses9 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)28 / 38
History coverage246d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? No 63¢ 69¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 29¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ assists Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +82%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? Jun 04 $1 +$3 +270%
Another Canada election called in 2025? Jun 04 $1 $0 +17%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 04 $1 +$1 +117%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 04 $2 +$5 +257%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 11 $1 −$1 -91%
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Nov 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe Nov 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe Nov 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Oct 28 $1 −$1 -100%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea"? Oct 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "TikTok" this week? (October 27 - November 2) Oct 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during Japan troop visit on October 28? Oct 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2025-10-28? Oct 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 28 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-19? Oct 28 $2 +$9 +426%
Will Wales win on 2025-10-13? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Max Verstappen finish third in the 2025 F1 Drivers Championship? Oct 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 17m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Will Virgil van Dijk score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 30h
Will Weston McKennie score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 31h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 31h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 29¢ $1 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 49¢ $1 31h
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ assists BUY Yes 52¢ $1 31h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $1 31h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY 29¢ $2 31h
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $1 2d
Raphinha: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $2 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 11d
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 11d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 11d
Xi Jinping out in 2025? SELL Yes $0 186d
Will Oscar Piastri finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 210d
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 210d
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025? BUY No 27¢ $1 210d
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe BUY Yes $1 224d
Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be betwe BUY Yes 20¢ $1 224d
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? BUY Yes $1 230d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 230d
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea"? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 230d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.83 · official $10.83 (match) · 55 history records